India is entering a crucial weather window with two overlapping risks: a near-term spell of intense heat across the northern and central plains and a developing El Niño signal that could weigh on the southwest monsoon later in the season.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest weather bulletin issued on May 17, said heatwave to severe heatwave conditions are likely to prevail over the plains of northwest India and central India during many days of the week.
It also forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over northeast India, the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during the next 6-7 days, and over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe, Lakshadweep and South Interior Karnataka during the next three days.
The immediate heat risk is sharpest over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Telangana.
IMD said heatwave conditions are likely over Rajasthan during May 17-23, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi during May 18-23, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during May 17-21, Chhattisgarh on May 20-21 and Telangana during May 17-21. Severe heatwave conditions are likely in isolated or some pockets of Uttar Pradesh during May 19-23.
Delhi-NCR is expected to remain hot through the early part of the week. IMD forecast maximum temperatures of 43-45 degrees Celsius over Delhi on May 18, 19 and 20, with strong surface winds during parts of the period.
Alongside the heat, parts of the south and east are likely to see active pre-monsoon rainfall. IMD has forecast heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe during May 17-19, with isolated very heavy rainfall over Kerala & Mahe on May 17. It has also warned of isolated heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during the week and over parts of northeast India.
The larger concern, however, is the monsoon outlook. In its first long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, IMD said seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be below normal, at 92% of the long-period average, with a model error of 5%.
IMD has placed the probability of deficient rainfall, or rainfall below 90% of LPA. This is where El Niño becomes important.
What is El Nino?
El Niño periodic warming of the central Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather systems across the globe. For India, its effects are particularly consequential.
In normal years, warm ocean water stays more towards the western Pacific, near Indonesia and Australia. This helps create strong winds and rain-bearing systems that support India’s monsoon.
During El Niño, the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. This changes wind patterns over the ocean and weakens the normal circulation that helps pull moisture towards India.
For India, El Niño can mean weaker monsoon rains in many parts of the country, especially northwest, central and western India paired with higher heat risk in central India before and during parts of the monsoon season.
This phenomena can in turn also add pressure on agriculture, particularly on kharif crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds and cotton that are critically dependent on monsoon rainfall presenting the risk of potential food inflation.
Global agencies are also watching the Pacific closely as of now and have made different predictions for the upcoming monsoons.
The geographical impact of a strong El Niño across India as described is not uniform at all with different reigons expcted to face dramatically difeeerent problems.
As per a report published by India Today, India’s northern, western, and central regions face the highest risk of dry conditions, with prolonged drought and agricultural losses among the primary concerns. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are considered particularly vulnerable during August and September.
The core monsoon belt across central and western India alonside places like Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal and Jabalpur are expected to receive subpar rainfall.
For Delhi-NCR, which is already experiencing worsening extreme heat, there is little prospect of monsoon relief. Drier and hotter conditions are expected to persist well into the season.
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