Exit Polls: The exit polls in India are usually treated as early indicators, not precise forecasts and the 2021 Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry offered a clear picture of where they got things right and where they missed the mark. Across these states, the overall direction of the verdict was often correct, but the scale of victory and seat projections varied widely, especially in the state of West Bengal.
West Bengal: Big miss in seat projections
In 2021, several exit polls projected a tight, cliffhanger contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with many agencies placing the BJP above or close to 100 seats. The aggregated ‘poll‑of‑polls’ had suggested that the TMC would win around 156 seats, with the BJP hovering near 121, painting a picture of a hard‑fought, near‑50‑50 fight.
The actual result, however, was a decisive verdict where the TMC stormed back to power with 215 seats in the 294‑member Assembly, while the BJP secured 77, making it the principal opposition but far short of the numbers projected. This sharp divergence exposed the limitations of exit‑poll models in West Bengal, where many voters reportedly refused to disclose their choice, leading to a silence effect that skewed the final projections.
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Tamil Nadu and Kerala: Exit polls broadly correct
In Tamil Nadu, the 2021 exit polls correctly identified the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)‑led alliance as the likely winner, broadly matching the final outcome. Most surveys placed the DMK‑led front above the 160‑seat mark in the 234‑seat Assembly and the actual tally- DMK‑led alliance crossing 150–160 seats- was in the right ballpark, even if some projections overestimated the margin.
In Kerala, exit polls also aligned with the final verdict where the Left‑led Left Democratic Front (LDF) returned to power with a comfortable majority in the 140‑seat Assembly. Agencies such as India Today- Axis My India and a few others had projected a clear LDF majority and their broad seat‑share call was accurate, with only minor variations in the exact numbers.
Assam and Puducherry: Mostly directionally right but details off
In Assam, the 2021 exit polls largely predicted that the BJP‑led NDA would retain power, which is exactly what happened. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA)- comprising the BJP, AGP and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL)- won 75 seats, with the BJP alone securing 60, and most major surveys had projected the NDA comfortably above the halfway mark, though individual seat‑wise ranges varied.
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In Puducherry, the 2021 exit polls correctly pointed to a hung‑Assembly‑like scenario, with no single bloc clearly cruising past the halfway mark in the 30‑seat House. The eventual result saw the Congress‑led alliance fall short of a majority, with the BJP‑led camp emerging as the main challenger, broadly in line with the direction of the exit‑poll projections, even if the exact seat counts were not perfectly matched.
Looking back at 2021, exit polls in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry got the broad direction of the mandate broadly right, even if the exact seat margins sometimes overshot reality. West Bengal stands out as the key exception, where projections badly underestimated the TMC’s dominance and overestimated the BJP’s gains, underscoring the risks of treating exit polls as definitive forecasts rather than just the trend‑indicators.
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