The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) suffered a major setback on Tuesday after the United Arab Emirates declared that it will exit the oil producers’ group and OPEC+ from 01 May 2026, amid growing geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran conflict.
The move comes at a time when the global energy market is already under pressure from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei told Reuters that the decision followed a review of the country’s long-term energy strategy and production goals.
“This is a policy decision. It has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production,” he said.
Mazrouei added that the UAE did not consult any other country, including Saudi Arabia, before taking the decision.
The UAE was the fourth-largest producer within OPEC+, the grouping comprising OPEC members and allies including Russia. Together, the alliance controlled nearly half of global oil production before the escalation of the Iran conflict.
The announcement also reflects widening divisions among Gulf nations as the ongoing war with Iran continues to disrupt regional stability and energy flows.
Oil prices trimmed gains following the announcement, although Brent crude remained elevated amid supply concerns.
OPEC producers in the Gulf have struggled to move exports through the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian threats and attacks on vessels. Mazrouei, however, said the UAE’s exit would not significantly impact the market because supply constraints in the strait remain the primary concern.
According to the International Energy Agency, OPEC+’s share of global oil output declined to 44 per cent in March from around 48 per cent in February, with further declines expected as production disruptions intensify.
The UAE’s decision is also being viewed as a geopolitical win for Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticised OPEC for supporting high oil prices.
The UAE has strengthened ties with the US and Israel in recent years, particularly following the 2020 Abraham Accords and the escalation of regional security threats during the Iran conflict.
Analysts said operating outside OPEC could allow the UAE to maximise production from its low-cost oil reserves at a time when global spare capacity remains historically tight. |
