If the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast of “below normal” southwest monsoon rainfall for June-September this year proves true, it may still not significantly reduce the country’s foodgrain production. This is due to the rise in irrigated area but experts warned that farm income in the rainfed regions could still be hit.
“Irrigation coverage has now reached 56% of net sown area, up from 49% in 2014–15 when the country had faced severe back-to-back drought years. This has made cultivation relatively more resilient to such volatility (in monsoon activity),” Pushan Sharma, director, Crisil Intelligence, said.
What did chairman of Bharat Krishak Samaj say?
According to Ajay Vir Jakhar, Chairman, Bharat Krishak Samaj, around 15% of the country’s kharif crops output depends on the rainfed regions.
Sharma said while parts of northeast, northwest, and south peninsular India are expected to see normal to above-normal rains—which should aid the paddy crop—any shortfall in rainfall during vegetative and flowering stages could raise downside risks for pulses, oilseeds, and cotton. However, the critical factor will be rainfall distribution from July to September.
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According to the met department, the monsoon core zone, where major rain-fed agriculture is practised is located in central India and spans the region including parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Bihar. Rainfall spread during the monsoon across these regions will be crucial for foodgrain production.
IMD in its first long-range forecast stated that monsoon rainfall this year is likely to be 92% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), with a high 66% chance that the rains will fall in the “deficient to below normal” range. In 2023, when overall monsoon rainfall was in the ‘below normal’ range at 94% of the LPA, foodgrain production grew marginally to 332 million tonnes (MT) in the 2023-24 crop year from 329 MT in the previous crop year.
Two back-to-back ‘deficient’ monsoon rains of 88% and 86% of the LPA in 2014 and 2015, respectively, saw foodgrain production stagnate at around 252 MT.
Currently, 166 major reservoirs according to the Central Water Commission, have water filled up to 41% of their capacities. The water level is 14.7% higher than last year and over 26% more than the last 10 years’ average, which may help boost irrigation. Overall kharif foodgrain – rice, pulses and coarse cereals—production constitutes about 55% of the total annual production.
“Although irrigation facilities in the country have improved, there are large areas of some states that depend heavily on rains. Their production and farmers’ income would be at stake, if rainfall is low at 92% of LPA. The country has to prepare how to compensate farmers through the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, if the need arises,” Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist, said.
Gulati said that for vulnerable consumers, rice and wheat are not a problem, as they get them even for free through a public distribution system. “The country has stocks of rice which are almost five times the buffer norm, and of wheat three times the buffer norm, as on April 1, 2026. But pulses, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, may suffer losses and their prices could be under pressure. For that liberal imports will be needed well in time,” he said.
Due to depressed prices and low inflation, the agri-sector is expected to have a gross value added (GVA) growth of 3.1% in FY26, according to the first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office in January, this year. The GVA grew 4.6% in FY25 and 2.7% in FY24.
Rajesh Aggarwal, Managing Director, Insecticides (India) and Vice-Chairman, Crop Care Federation of India, said. “the real concern arises out of the rainfall gaps rather than overall below-normal totals. Too much dryness stresses crops early, while excess rain triggers other issues of crop damage. The moderate deficit allows normal crop protection cycles to continue,”
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA had earlier stated, “The forecast of a sub-par monsoon, at 92% of LPA, owing to El Nino conditions, is the lowest first long-range forecast in at least 26 years. This, along with the impending impact of the ongoing crisis in West Asia, poses downside risks to India’s GDP growth in FY27.”
IMD will release a second long-range advance forecast of monsoon rains later next month.
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