Several exit polls on Wednesday predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party may defeat the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, while the alliance led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is likely to retain power in Tamil Nadu.
Most pollsters also predicted a win for the BJP in Assam, the Congress-led United Democratic Front in Kerala and the National Democratic Alliance in Puducherry.
The predictions came as voting for the second phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections concluded on Wednesday.
The first phase of the West Bengal Assembly election took place on April 23. Voting in Tamil Nadu took place in a single phase on April 23, while polling in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry took place on April 9.
The results in all states will be announced on May 4.
West Bengal
The West Bengal Assembly has 294 seats. At least 148 seats are required for a party or coalition to attain a majority. The Trinamool Congress had won the 2021 Assembly election by an overwhelming majority of 215 seats.
Most exit polls predicted that the BJP may be on track to end the Mamata Banerjee-led party’s 15-year tenure in the state.
Pollster Chanakya Strategies predicted that the Hindutva party may win between 150 to 160 seats, while the TMC may win 130 to 140 constituencies. Matrize projected the BJP to win 146 to 161 seats and the TMC 125 to 140.
Another pollster, Praja Poll, predicted a bigger victory margin for the BJP at 178 to 208 seats, and forecast that the TMC may be reduced to 85 to 110 constituencies, according to ABP News.
However, Peoples Pulse predicted that the TMC may retain power and win between 177 and 187 seats, NDTV reported. It projected the BJP to win 95 to 110 constituencies.
West Bengal exit polls
Source TMC BJP Others Chanakya Strategies 130-140 150-160 6-10 Poll Diary 99-127 142-171 5-9 Matrize 125-140 146-161 6-10 Praja Poll 85-110 178-208 0-5
Tamil Nadu
The Tamil Nadu Assembly has 234 seats. A party or coalition needs to win 117 seats to secure a majority. In 2021, an alliance led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam had won the state election, ending the decade-long tenure of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
On Wednesday, most pollsters predicted that the MK Stalin-led party may return to power, even as one agency, Axis My India, predicted that the actor Vijay’s newly-founded Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam may emerge as the single largest party.
Chanakya Strategies predicted that the DMK-led alliance may get 145-160 seats, and the AIADMK-led coalition may be reduced to 50 to 65 places. Another agency, Praja Poll, projected that the DMK and its allies may win 148 to 168 seats, and the AIADMK and its allies may win 61 to 81 constituencies, ABP News reported.
Matrize suggested a closer contest, with the DMK-led alliance projected to win 122-125 seats, and the AIADMK-led coalition likely to win 87-100 constituencies.
Tamil Nadu exit polls
Source DMK+ AIADMK+ TVK Others Chanakya Strategies 145-160 50-65 18-26 Axis My India 92-110 22-32 98-120 Matrize 122-125 87-100 10-18 Praja Poll 148-168 61-81
1-9
Kerala
Kerala has 40 Assembly seats, and the majority mark for a party or coalition is 71 seats. In 2021, the Left Democratic Front led by Pinarayi Vijayan retained power with 99 seats, marking the first time since 1977 that an alliance won consecutive terms in the state.
Exit polls on Wednesday predicted that the United Democratic Front may edge ahead of the ruling Left Democratic Front in Kerala.
Pollster Matrize predicted that the Congress-led alliance may win 70 to 75 seats in the state, while the Left Front may win 60 to 65 constituencies. Chanakya Strategies predicted a clearer lead for the UDF at 72 to 80 seats, and forecast 58 to 64 seats for the Left Democratic Front.
Another pollster, Axis My India predicted 78 to 90 seats for the UDF, and 49 to 62 for the LDF.
Kerala exit polls
Source LDF UDF Others
Matrize 60-65 70-75 5-9 Axis My India 49-62 78-90 0-3. Chanakya Strategies 58-64 72-80 3-7
Assam
Assam has a 126-member Legislative Assembly, and the majority mark for a party or coalition to form the government is 64. In 2021, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance retained power with 75 seats. While Sarbananda Sonowal was the chief minister during the NDA’s first term, Himanta Biswa Sarma took over the top post in the second term.
On Wednesday, exit polls unanimously predicted that the BJP is likely to return to power for a third term. While Chanakya Strategies projected the alliance led by the Hindutva party to win 88 to 98 seats, Poll Diary predicted that it may secure victory in 86 to 101 constituencies.
Chanakya Strategies predicted that the Congress-led alliance will be reduced to 22 to 32 seats, while Poll Diary said that the coalition may get between 15 and 26 seats.
Assam exit polls
Source BJP+ Congress+ Others Chanakya Strategies 88-98 22-32 3-5 Poll Diary 86-101 15-26 3-7 Matrize 85-95 25-32 6-12
Puducherry
The Puducherry Assembly has a total of 33 seats, of which three seats are nominated by the Union government, and the rest are elected directly. The majority mark for a party or coalition to win power is 16 seats.
In 2021, the National Democratic Alliance led by the All India NR Congress secured power, winning 16 seats.
This time too, the alliance may retain power, pollsters have predicted. According to Axis My India, the ruling coalition may get 16-20 seats, while the Congress-led alliance may win only six to eight constituencies.
JVC predicted that the NDA may win 15 to 17 seats, while the Congress-led bloc may win 11 to 13 constituencies.
Puducherry exit polls
Source NDA Congress+ TVK Others Axis My India 16-20 6-8 2-4 1-3 JVC 15-17 11-13 1-2 -
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