Voting in four states (Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal) and one Union territory (Puducherry) concluded on Wednesday (April 29) with exit polls projecting a mixed reaction from the voters. Results of all five state assembly elections will be announced on May 4.
Speaking of Tamil Nadu in particular, the political landscape appears headed for a dramatic shake-up, according to the latest exit poll conducted by Vote Vibe and Axis My India. The surveys, which were released late on Wednesday, projected a hung assembly with the opposition AIADMK-led alliance surging ahead of the ruling DMK+, but falling short of a majority on its own.
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According to Vote Vibe’s survey, the AIADMK+ seat ranges from 114 to 124, with a mid-point of 119. The ruling DMK+ alliance is projected to secure between 103 and 113 seats (mid-point 108), while the newly formed TVK is predicted to win between 4 and 7 seats. With the total seats in the assembly standing at 234, a party needs 118 seats to form a majority.
What is a hung assembly?
A hung assembly happens when no party or pre-poll alliance secures a majority mark. To form a government, a party or alliance needs a simple majority, which is one seat more than the halfway mark.
What happens if there is a hung assembly?
If there is a hung assembly in a state, the Governor invites the leader of the single-largest party or alliance to form the next government and gives them 10 days to show a majority. If the party is unable to show its majority, the Governor has the power to dissolve the assembly and call for re-election.
However, before this happens, parties attempt several 11th-hour options, including post-poll alliances and forming a minority government, where the party governs with outside support. For instance, in the 2013 Delhi Assembly election, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) emerged as the second-largest party, with 28 seats. AAP later formed a minority government with 49 days of outside support from the Indian National Congress (INC).
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When this takes place, smaller parties bargain with the larger parties for top positions, including the Chief Minister or Deputy Chief Minister. Such governments are also often unstable and could be brought down by a no-confidence vote before their term ends.
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