Exit polls for the West Bengal Assembly elections have sketched a political canvas split down the middle, with projections pulling in opposite directions on whether Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress will retain power or if the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could surge ahead.
Two agencies, Peoples Pulse and Axis My India, place the TMC comfortably above the majority mark, projecting between 177 and 187 seats in the 294-member Assembly. But a cluster of other pollsters, including Matrize, P-Marq, Chanakya Strategies and Poll Diary, tilt the balance toward the BJP, estimating its tally anywhere between 142 and 175 seats.
ALSO READNDA set for Assam sweep, UDF eyes Kerala comeback: The key takeaways from exit poll projections
The final phase of polling, covering 142 seats across seven districts, passed largely without major incident, a contrast to earlier phases that saw sporadic violence following the April 23 vote. With campaigning marked by sharp rhetoric and high voter turnout, the contest has remained intensely competitive.
How accurate were exit polls in 2021?
History casts a long shadow over these projections. In the 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election, exit polls were equally divided. CVoter predicted a comfortable TMC win with 158 seats, while Republic-CNX gave the BJP an edge at 143. Axis My India suggested a knife-edge contest, indicating either party could cross the majority mark.
Today’s Chanakya came closest to the final outcome, yet still missed the mark by a wide margin, projecting the TMC at 169-191 seats and the BJP at 97-119. At the other extreme, Jan Ki Baat’s forecast diverged sharply, predicting the TMC would be pushed out of power with just 104-121 seats, while the BJP would comfortably cross the majority threshold with 162-185.
ALSO READTamil Nadu exit polls suggest fractured mandate: Will Thalapathy Vijay be a kingmaker?
The India Today-AxisMyIndia poll, meanwhile, anticipated a tight contest but ultimately leaned toward a narrow BJP majority.
On average, exit polls undershot the TMC’s eventual performance by around 61 seats, while overshooting the BJP’s tally by roughly 49 seats.
When results were declared in 2021, the electorate delivered a decisive verdict. The TMC swept to power with 215 seats, leaving the BJP at 77 — a stark reminder that exit polls, for all their statistical choreography, can miss the political mood on the ground.
</p> |
