Onset of summer seems to be delayed as India is likely to witness above-normal rainfall across most regions in April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
The met department prediction comes after a rain-deficient January-February followed by a cooler March.
However, the north eastern region is expected to be an exception, where rainfall activity is forecast to remain below normal during April, the department stated.
“The average rainfall over India during April 2026, is most likely to be ‘above normal’ at 112% above benchmark long period (LPA) during April, 2026,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said.
LPA is the average rainfall in Aprilduring 1971-2020 which is 39.2 millimetre.
What did IMD say?
The met department in its forecast has stated ‘above-normal’ heat wave days over coastal Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Gujarat Maharashtra, Karnataka, during April 2026.
For the hot season (April–June), the met department stated that maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of the country except most parts of east and northeast India.
Besides, eastern parts of central India and adjoining peninsular regions where above-normal maximum temperatures are expected during the next three months.
Mohapatra stated that eight west disturbances (WDs) against the normal range of 5-6 in March ensure higher rainfall especially in the second of the month.
Rainfall during March, 2026 was above normal level at 33.7 mm, 12.5% more than LPA.
Impact of unseasonal rains
Meanwhile, due to unseasonal rains in the last days, has had some impact on standing crops in some of regions such as northwest and central India where harvesting of wheat and chana had commenced.
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, meteorology and climate change, Skymet, private weather forecasting agency in a post on social media platform ‘X’, said that a series of back-to-back western disturbances – March 30-31, April 3 – 4 and April 6- 8 are approaching North-West India can damage ready to harvest crops.
Palawat has asked farmers to harvest crops in the next one week as the last western disturbances could be more damaging,
The agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan recently directed officials to assess crop damages to the standing rabi crops because of recent unseasonal rains and hailstorms across several parts of the country so that crop insurance claims can be processed at the earliest.
Looking Ahead to the 2026 Monsoon
Mohapatra stated that forecasts from the most models indicate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ‘neutral’ conditions are expected during April-May 2026 conditions. “The El Nino conditions are likely to develop by the end of July or the second half of the monsoon months” Mohapatra said.
IMD will be providing the first forecast for the monsoon, 2026 middle of April.
He stated that climate models indicate positive India Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season.
Scientists say that both ENSO and IOD influence the progress of southwest monsoon in opposite ways as El Nino conditions tend to lead to lesser rainfall, while a positive IOD increases rainfall activities. |
