The government is once again facing the large surplus of wheat stocks after a gap of five years, as agencies commence procurement of grain for the 2026-27 marketing season (April-June) from the farmers.
Sources told FE that currently the central pool has wheat stock of 22.36 million tonne (MT), which is three times the buffer of 7.46 MT for April 1. This is likely to keep mandi prices below the minimum support price (MSP) for the season, trade sources said.
Higher procurement against supplies under the free ration scheme and sluggish offloading of surplus stock in the market has contributed to higher stocks.
The current stock is highest since 2021, when the government had 27.3 MT of wheat at the beginning of April.
This is because of excess supply conditions in the domestic market with the private sector also holding substantial wheat which keep their purchase in the mandis sluggish in the new marketing season (2026-27).
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In February, 2026 while lifting the close to 4 year old ban on wheat exports, the food ministry had projected a wheat stock of 18.2 MT on April 1 and stated that ‘export permissions will not impact domestic food security requirements,’.
How much stock is held by private entities?
According to the ministry, private entities currently hold around 7.5 MT of wheat stocks, about 3.2 MT higher than the same period last year — indicating a comfortable supply position.
“Private entities would be cautious purchasing wheat in the market this season as there is ample carry forward stock,” a leading flour miller said.
Sluggish sale of wheat under the open market sale scheme of the Food Corporation of India (FCI) has also contributed to higher stocks.
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Against allocation of 3 MT of allocation, FCI would offload only about 0.6 MT in the market in 2025-26. In FY25, the corporation had sold 3 MT of wheat in the markets from its surplus stock.
“Currently wheat arrivals have started and market prices are in the range of Rs 2350/quintal – Rs 2400/quintal against the MSP of Rs 2585/quintal,” Gagan Gupta, a trader in Sehore, one of the biggest market for wheat in Madhya Pradesh, said.
The average retail prices of wheat on Monday according to the department of consumer affairs was Rs 31.26/kg, a marginal decline from the prices prevailed a year back.
The food ministry is aiming to purchase over 30 MT of wheat at MSP in the largely key growing states – Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan starting April 1.
The Rajasthan government has declared a higher bonus of Rs 150 per quintal over the MSP.
In the 2025-26 and 2024-25 marketing seasons, wheat purchases by the government agencies were 29.77 MT and 26.6 MT respectively.
FCI supplies around 20 MT wheat to be distributed to beneficiaries under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana or free ration scheme.
In February while allowing exports of 2.5 MT of wheat and an additional 0.5 MT of processed wheat products, the food ministry had cited surplus stocks and the prospect of a record harvest.
India’s wheat production is estimated at a record 120.21 MT in the 2025-26 crop year (July-June), an increase of more than 2% from 117.94 MT in the previous year, the agriculture ministry recently stated.
Sources said while harvesting in Madhya Pradesh completed, recent unseasonal rains may have some impact on wheat crop yield in a few pockets.
The arrival and harvesting of crops in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan is likely to commence soon.
Govt’s wheat stocks (in million tonne)*
| 2022 | 18.99 | | 2023 | 8.34 | | 2024 | 7.5 | | 2025 | 11.79 | | 2026 | 22.36 |
*Stock as on April 1
Wheat procurement (in million tonne)
| 2022-23 | 18.8 | | 2023-24 | 26.2 | | 2024-25 | 26.6 | | 2025-26 | 29.6 | | 2026-27 | 30.3* |
Source: food ministry, season (April-June), * target, purchase by FCI & state agencies |
