Tamil Nadu witnessed a major upheaval in politics this election, as actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party TVK have broken the decades-long dominance of Dravidian parties. Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which is contesting elections for the first time, emerged as the single-largest party with 108 seats. However, despite this impressive performance, the party has fallen short of the majority required to form the government on its own.
Shortfall of seats and majority mark
In the 234-member Assembly, a party needs 118 seats (117+1) for a clear majority. With Vijay’s TVK securing 108 seats, the party is still 10 short of the mark. Additionally, Vijay has won from two constituencies (Perambur and Tiruchirappalli East) and will have to vacate one, reducing the party’s tally further. Moreover, once the government is formed, one candidate will be appointed as Speaker, who does not vote under normal circumstances, effectively lowering the party’s strength in the House.
By taking these factors into consideration, TVK will need the support of at least 12 additional MLAs to prove its majority.
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Coalition options
With only 108 seats, Vijay’s TVK is exploring multiple possibilities in alliance to form the government:
Option 1: Alliance with smaller parties
TVK (108) + Congress (5) + Left (4) + IUML (2) + VCK (2)
Option 2: Support from smaller parties
TVK (108) + Congress (5) + PMK (4) + IUML (2) + Left (4)
Option 3: Tie-up with AIADMK
TVK (108) + AIADMK (47)
According to various reports, TVK is actively discussing potential alliances with Congress and other smaller parties, and is even considering offering cabinet positions to coalition partners to ensure a stable government despite a narrow majority.
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Smaller parties rise as kingmakers
Political analysts have observed that smaller parties have assumed the role of “kingmakers” in Tamil Nadu. The election results have delivered a fragmented mandate, particularly for the DMK alliance. Congress has won 6 seats, while Left parties CPI and CPI(M) have secured 2 seats each.
Other parties like the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) have also gained representation.
Meanwhile, the AIADMK alliance has secured a limited number of seats, with parties like PMK and BJP contributing to its tally. If TVK manages to secure support from even a few of these parties, it could comfortably cross the majority mark.
On the other hand, Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Arlekar is likely to initiate the government formation process soon as he had invited Vijay to stake claim and prove majority, or ask for letters of support.
If TVK fails to demonstrate a majority, the Governor could offer the opportunity to the second-largest party, the DMK, to prove its majority. In case no party succeeds to prove majority or form a government, the state may come under President’s Rule, followed by fresh elections within six months.
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