The US birth rate has fallen to its lowest level on record in 2024, continuing a steady decline seen over the past two decades. According to new data from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the national fertility rate dropped to below 1.6 children per woman-well below the 2.1 rate needed to maintain the population.
The New York Post reported that experts point to several factors behind the trend, including personal choices and cultural shifts, but one key contributor is the sharp rise in housing costs.
Economists analysed housing market data and found that the cost of buying a home has increased significantly. In 2006, the median price of a single-family home was $221,923, which translates to about $343,806 in 2024 dollars when adjusted for inflation. By comparison, the median sale price in 2024 was $410,100, more than $66,000 higher in real terms than the 2006 equivalent.
Over the same 18-year period, the US total fertility rate dropped from about 2.1 births per woman to just under 1.6 births, according to the New York Post.
This growing financial pressure is believed to be discouraging many from starting or expanding families, with more people delaying parenthood or choosing not to have children at all. The combined impact of rising living costs and economic uncertainty is reshaping demographic trends across the country.
"Larger homes that can comfortably accommodate multiple children have become increasingly out of reach for many families," says Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones. "As prices have far outpaced wage growth, couples may delay homeownership or remain in smaller homes longer, limiting the space available for growing families."
A study published by the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research in 2012 found that home prices have a significant impact on family planning.
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