India's exports to the United States have experienced a sharp decline of 37.5 per cent over four months, following Washington’s decision to levy a 50 per cent tariff on most Indian products, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
The study revealed that shipments fell from USD 8.8 billion in May 2025 to USD 5.5 billion in September 2025, marking the steepest and most sustained drop in exports to the U.S. this year.
“Washington’s 50 per cent tariffs have led to a 37.5 per cent contraction in Indian exports to the U.S. within just four months,” the report stated.
September was the first month when Indian goods were fully subjected to the new tariffs. During that month alone, exports fell 20.3 per cent, from USD 6.87 billion in August to USD 5.5 billion, representing the largest monthly decline of 2025 and the fourth consecutive month of falling shipments.
The downturn began in May, the last month of growth before the tariffs were introduced, when exports had risen 4.8 per cent to USD 8.8 billion. From June onwards, shipments saw continuous declines: 5.7 per cent in June to USD 8.3 billion, 3.6 per cent in July to USD 8.0 billion, and 13.8 per cent in August to USD 6.9 billion, before dropping further in September.
GTRI also highlighted that over the May–September period, India lost more than USD 3.3 billion in monthly export value to the U.S., underscoring the significant impact of Washington’s tariff policy on bilateral trade.
Among the most affected sectors were textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, and chemicals. The fall in shipments from these industries has heavily contributed to the overall decline, raising concerns about the medium-term implications for India’s manufacturing and export competitiveness in its largest market.
The report concluded that the sharp reduction in Indian exports over the past four months directly reflects the consequences of the 50 per cent tariff regime and emphasises the need for a strategic review to protect India’s trade interests. |
