With days left for Bihar to head to the polling booths, all eyes are on the ruling NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan, who are leaving no stone unturned to ensure victory. However, most politicians and analysts agree that the fight is no longer between two sides; rather a three-pronged one with Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party posing a major threat to the two major fronts.
Will Prashant Kishor emerge as the kingmaker in Bihar politics? Will he eat into the strongholds of the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan? Amid speculations that he will emerge as the X factor, this is what the surveys have to say.
According to the Matrize-IANS Opinion Poll, the JDU-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will have a clear and easy victory in the poll-bound state. RJD-led Opposition is expected to put up a fight, but not forceful enough to unseat the Nitish Kumar government, despite a strong anti-incumbency wave. But, their most interesting observation is about Jan Suraaj Party, which is expected to bag a moderate share of seven per cent vote share and may bag 2-5 seats on its own.
For a party that was formed barely a year before the elections, a seven per cent vote share is not a mean task, that too when it only predicts six per cent vote share for the Lok Janshakti Party led by Union Minister Chirag Paswan.
The Times Now–JVC opinion poll also favours the NDA to cross the majority mark in Bihar with 136 seats, but showed an astounding 15 per cent favoured him as the next chief minister. The survey revealed that though his party only had a minor presence in August, it doubled by September. It also predicted that the party could win 4-6 seats with 10-11 per cent vote share.
The survey suggested that Kishor was taking away a sizable votes from the Opposition, especially among urban youth and disenchanted voters who want an alternative to both Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav.
Meanwhile, an opinion poll by SPICK Media Network too revealed that Nitish-led NDA will emerge winner with 158 seats. It predicts the party would win an eight percent vote share. As for CM face, Kishor is ahead of Chirag Paswan at 13 per cent. SPICK Media Network claims that Kishor's influence is growing, especially among young and new voters, thanks to his different approach.
The C-Voter-India Today survey has placed him second in the race for Chief Minister's post. It also predicts the Jan Suraj party to gain a vote share of 10 to 11 percent, potentially translating into four to six seats. |
