Far removed from the tsunami of the political churn in Indian politics today, the winds of the Baltic Sea brush across my face on the quiet island of Gotland, Sweden. Yet my thoughts reflect on the winds of change in my beloved state of West Bengal.
There is, once again, the faint stir of possibility.
A possibility that Bengal, after more than five decades of drift, may finally begin the long journey back to where it once stood: as India’s intellectual, cultural, and economic nerve centre. A place that shaped national discourse, not one that looks back wistfully – with nostalgia and history - at what might have been.
For my generation, this decline has not been abstract. It has been lived—slow, visible, and deeply frustrating. But what has hurt more than decline itself is something more fundamental: the repeated betrayal of overwhelming public mandates to political parties.
A State That Repeatedly Hopes And Repeatedly Waits
The Left Front governed for over three decades, beginning with strong redistributive intent but ending with industrial stagnation, capital flight, and fiscal exhaustion. By 2011, the state’s finances were deeply stressed, its industrial base hollowed out, and investor confidence severely eroded.
The mandate that brought Mamata Banerjee to power that year was therefore not routine—it was transformational. Given her clean image, it carried the promise of clean governance, administrative dignity, and economic revival.
About 15 years later, that promise stands only partially fulfilled.
While the Chief Minister retains significant personal popularity, governance outcomes have raised persistent concerns. Allegations of entrenched corruption, the spread of “tollabaazi” (extortion) at the ground level, and the politicisation of local administration have increasingly shaped public perception. For many citizens, interactions with the state—especially at the municipal and grassroots level—are marked by inefficiency, opacity, and, at times, unapologetic intimidation.
The RG Kar Medical College incident became a tipping point in public discourse—not only because of the crime itself, but because it triggered wider questions about the brazenness, the utter lawlessness, lack of accountability, institutional credibility and the state’s response under scrutiny.
Travel through smaller towns and semi-urban Bengal, and the feedback is strikingly consistent. Auto drivers, small traders, domestic workers, rickshaw pullers—people far removed from political rhetoric—speak in similar terms: concerns about law and order, everyday corruption, local-level coercion, and failing civic services.
This is not ideological dissatisfaction. It is experiential at the level of the common man’s quest to live with dignity.
The Deeper Problem: Economic Underperformance
Beneath the governance narrative lies a more consequential failure—the economy.
West Bengal entered 2011 with structural weaknesses. But over the next decade and a half, it did not execute a decisive pivot toward an investment-led growth model. Instead, it remained fiscally constrained, with a growing share of resources absorbed by debt servicing and increasing welfare commitments.
The Fiscal Reality
West Bengal’s debt remains among the highest relative to its economic size. A significant portion of its annual budget is pre-committed to
Interest payments
Salaries and administrative expenditure
Welfare schemes and subsidies
This leaves limited fiscal room for capital expenditure—the single most important driver of long-term growth.
The Capex Gap
The contrast with better-performing states is stark.
West Bengal’s capital expenditure is estimated at roughly 1.2–1.5 per cent of GSDP
States like Tamil Nadu and Gujarat spend ~2.5–3.5 per cent of GSDP
In terms of total expenditure:
West Bengal allocates ~8 per cent to capex
Leading states allocate 15–18 per cent
On an economy of approximately Rs 18 lakh crore, this gap translates into Rs 25,000–35,000 crore of annual underinvestment.
Why This Matters
Capital expenditure has powerful multiplier effects. Reserve Bank of India estimates suggest a multiplier of 2.5x–3x over a 2–3 year horizon.
This means that closing Bengal’s capex gap could:
Add 3–5 percentage points to medium-term growth
Crowd in private investment
Generate large-scale employment
Yet Bengal remains stuck in a low-investment equilibrium.
Growth Divergence
The consequences are visible:
West Bengal’s growth has averaged ~5–6 per cent (cyclically adjusted) since 2011
Industrial states like Tamil Nadu and Gujarat have sustained 7–9 per cent growth phases
This divergence is not accidental. It reflects policy prioritisation.
The Structural Trap
West Bengal today is caught in a reinforcing cycle:
High Debt → High Interest Burden → Limited Fiscal Space → Low Capex → Weak Industrial Growth → Moderate Revenues → Persistent Debt
Compounding this is a strategic tilt toward a consumption-led model, where welfare expansion takes precedence over investment in productive assets.
While welfare is necessary, it cannot substitute for growth.
States that have balanced welfare with sustained capital investment have built resilient industrial ecosystems. Bengal, despite its advantages—dense market, strong human capital, strategic geography—has not.
The Missing Industrial Engine
West Bengal should have been a natural manufacturing and services hub. It has:
Port access
Proximity to eastern and northeastern markets
Strong educational institutions
A large labour pool
Yet large-scale industrial ecosystems have not emerged.
Sectors like IT, logistics, textiles, leather, and light engineering exist—but remain fragmented. The absence of integrated clusters, infrastructure depth, and policy continuity has limited scale.
Equally important is perception. Investor confidence, shaped by concerns around law and order, regulatory predictability, and administrative neutrality, remains fragile.
.jpg) A New Mandate, A Narrow Window
As West Bengal enters another phase of political transition, the responsibility on the alternative, particularly the BJP, is immense. This is not merely an electoral opportunity. It is a structural test. Five priorities are non-negotiable:
1. Shift to Investment-Led Growth
Rebalance fiscal priorities from a consumption-led fiscal structure toward capital expenditure and productive asset creation. Without this, growth acceleration is mathematically impossible. With a large internal market and strong agricultural base, the state is well-positioned to become both an industrial hub and a high-value services economy
2. Build Industrial Ecosystems
Move beyond fragmented clusters. Develop integrated manufacturing and services hubs across key sectors to help economically scale businesses.
3. Restore Fiscal Discipline
Deleveraging the state balance sheet and rationalising expenditure is essential to creating public investment space.
4. Rebuild Trust
Perhaps the most critical challenge is restoring trust. Investors—large and small—need predictable governance, strong rule of law, and freedom from perceived coercion or administrative arbitrariness. Without this, no policy framework will succeed. And without credibility, capital will not return.
5. Fix Local Governance
For most citizens, governance is experienced locally. Municipal efficiency and accountability must improve and be seen to be accountable and responsive.
What Must Not Be Done
Equally important are the mistakes to avoid. West Bengal is a culturally self-aware society. Attempts—real or perceived—to impose external cultural or dietary norms or homogenise local traditions will be resisted and distract from core governance priorities.
Leadership must be locally credible, not imported. Governance, through a circle of non-political advisors, must be professional, not partisan. And victory must not devolve into an unending cycle of pettiness.
There is also a deeper structural issue. For decades, Bengal’s politics—across parties—has normalised the use of coercive local networks in political mobilisation. What began as a peripheral tool in the 60s became embedded in governance itself.
Breaking this cycle is essential. Replicating it would only perpetuate decline.
Trust, Once Broken, Is Hard to Rebuild
West Bengal today stands, yet again, at a crossroad. Its people have shown, repeatedly, that they are willing to deliver decisive mandates. But they are also increasingly unwilling to tolerate underperformance.
The next phase of governance—whoever leads it locally—will not be judged by rhetoric or intent. It will be judged by delivery. The BJP must demonstrate it is different from both the Left and the TMC….not only ideologically but in substance. It must remember it is for the first time that the leadership of Bengal will be in the hands of leaders outside its own state. It is a reflection of the desperation of its highly evolved, culturally proud people that it has chosen to embark on this path. This trust must not be broken.
Because Bengal’s challenge is no longer about reclaiming past glory.
It is about proving that it can still build a future along with the rest of the country on the move.
And BJP’s promise of a “ double engine” sarkar to drive good governance and growth may well have been the clarion call that dislodged the TMC with a solid, decisive mandate for “poriborton”.
And after decades of missed opportunities, this may well be its most consequential test yet. I live with the temerity to hope.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication. |
