The votes are being counted and the verdicts are arriving fast. Across five states and one Union Territory, the May 2026 election count is delivering the kind of political drama that no pollster fully scripted. From West Bengal to Puducherry, incumbents are scrambling, alliances are being tested and a new generation of voter is making its presence unmistakably felt.
Bengal turns saffron
The most seismic signal has come from West Bengal, where the BJP is leading in over 190 seats. The party has breached the halfway mark and is threatening to end Mamata Banerjee’s decade-and-a-half grip on the state. What is most striking is the geography of the surge — the saffron wave has pushed well past its traditional pockets, rolling through the Jungle Mahal and even reaching TMC’s urban bastions in Greater Kolkata.
‘Annamalai prepared the ground, Vijay reaped it’: Ex-BJP Tamil Nadu president trends as party suffers setback
While the TMC is mounting a resistance in minority-concentrated belts, the BJP’s messaging around rural distress and the SIR voter roll exercise appears to have done serious damage to the ruling party’s coalition. That said, Bengal’s first-ever BJP government will be the defining headline of the entire election season.
Blockbuster debut Tamil Nadu
Five hundred kilometres south, Tamil Nadu is watching its own revolution unfold in slow motion. Thalapathy Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) is leading in over 110 seats, effectively doing what no third force has managed in fifty years i.e. breaking the iron grip of the DMK-AIADMK duopoly. At the time of press, TVK is leading on 107 seats.
The ruling DMK finds itself in an unfamiliar third place, with Chief Minister MK Stalin facing a stiff test in his own stronghold of Kolathur. The AIADMK holds the second but the real story belongs to TVK’s sweep of urban constituencies and its near-total capture of the youth vote.
Kerala swings back
Kerala’s five-year pendulum appears to be swinging with precision. The Congress-led UDF has taken a commanding early lead over Pinarayi Vijayan’s LDF government, with several sitting ministers trailing in their own seats. Traditional UDF strongholds in Idukki and Wayanad are reinforcing the lead and Vijayan’s bid for a historic third term is looking increasingly difficult. Incumbency, it seems, has its limits even in a state that once rewarded the Left with back-to-back terms.
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Assam holds steady for BJP
In Assam, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s BJP-led NDA has crossed the halfway mark, suggesting the double-engine narrative retains its pull in the Brahmaputra Valley. A third consecutive term for the BJP in Assam would cement Sarma’s standing as one of the most dominant regional figures in the ruling party’s national constellation.
Puducherry: A photo finish
The Union Territory delivered a close contest earlier in the day, with the AINRC-led NDA and the Congress-DMK alliance locked in a tight battle. Key seats including Thattanchavady, where Chief Minister N Rangasamy has successfully defended his turf. So far, AIMRC has won on five seats, BJP on 2 seats and three have been secured by Independent candidates.
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