As counting trends for the 2026 Assembly elections gather pace, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be emerging as the dominant political force across key battleground states, with early leads and projected wins indicating a strong nationwide performance.
Across states like West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry, the party has either crossed or is inching towards majority marks, signalling a significant expansion beyond its traditional strongholds.
A saffron dawn in Bengal? BJP looks to end TMC tenure
In West Bengal, one of the most closely watched contests, the BJP has taken a commanding lead, crossing the majority mark of 148 seats in early trend projections. This marks a sharp turnaround from the 2021 Assembly elections and suggests a major consolidation of votes in favour of the party.
The surge has been particularly visible in border districts and politically sensitive regions, where shifts in voter demographics and turnout appear to have played a decisive role.
As per independent analysts, the recent SIR exercise in the state and the aftermath of the horrifying RG Kar case have acted as a key catalyst behind this result.
ALSO READTamil Nadu poll result: How exit polls got the verdict wrong, except one pollster
Key BJP candidates leading:
- Dipak Barman – Falakata (SC)
- Bishal Lama – Kalchini (ST)
- Manoj Kumar Oraon – Kumargram (ST)
- Laxuman Limbu – Madarihat (ST)
- Niladri Sekhar Dana – Bankura
- Billeswar Sinha – Barjora
- Satyanarayan Mukhopadhyay – Chhatna
- Lakshmi Kanta Majumdar – Katulpur (SC)
- Amarnath Shakha – Onda
- Kshetramohan Hansda – Raipur (ST)
- Kshudiram Tudu – Ranibandh (ST)
- Chandana Bauri – Saltora (SC)
- Dibakar Gharami – Sonamukhi (SC)
- Souvik Patra – Taldangra
- Jagannath Chattopadhyay – Suri
The spread of leads across SC/ST and rural constituencies suggests a broad-based social coalition underpinning the BJP’s surge.
Strong showing in Assam, gains hold steady
In Assam, where the BJP has been the incumbent, early trends indicate that the party has managed to retain its dominance. The party is leading in a comfortable number of seats, reflecting continuity in governance support as well as organisational strength in the Northeast.
The party’s performance reflects a combination of governance continuity and grassroots organisational depth.
Key BJP candidates leading:
- Ranjeet Kumar Dass – Bhawanipur-Sorbhog
- Munindra Das – Behali (SC)
- Pallab Lochan Das – Biswanath
- Utpal Borah – Gohpur
- Bhupen Roy – Abhayapuri
- Amiya Kanti Das – Dholai (SC)
- Kamalakhya Dey Purkayastha – Katigorah
- Kaushik Rai – Lakhipur
Even in constituencies where allies and opposition parties are competitive, the BJP’s seat conversion efficiency remains high.
Puducherry: Tight contest but BJP-led alliance ahead
In Puducherry, the BJP-led alliance is locked in a competitive race but remains ahead in early trends. While the margins are narrower compared to larger states, the performance underscores the party’s growing footprint in southern regions.
Key BJP candidates leading:
- M. Arul Murugan – Karaikal South
- Tksm Meenatchisundaram – Neravy–T.R. Pattinam
Alongside these, NDA allies such as the All India N.R. Congress are also leading in multiple seats, strengthening the alliance’s overall position.
Kerala: Limited footprint, selective presence
Kerala remains a challenging terrain for the BJP, with early trends dominated by UDF and LDF formations. The party’s presence is limited and largely restricted to pockets.
While BJP breakthroughs remain elusive here, its vote share and organisational presence continue to be areas of long-term strategic focus. As of ECI data posted at 12:03 PM, BJP is presently leading in 2 seats in Kerala.
BJP Candidate leading in Kerala:
Sobha Surendran
Rajeev Chandrasekhar
Overview of the BJP’s performance so far
Across states, the BJP has posted what many are calling a very successful performance and made some historic strides in expanding its geographic footprint in eastern India, particularly West Bengal
Apart from Bengal, the Modi-Shah-led BJP posted a dominant performance in Assam and led the tally in Puducherry through a strategic alliance with regional players. A highlight of the BJP’s performance across states has been its strong showing in SC/ST and border constituencies.
Key leading candidates (As of 12:05 PM)
StateCandidateConstituencyWest BengalDipak BarmanFalakataBishal LamaKalchiniManoj Kumar OraonKumargramLaxuman LimbuMadarihatNiladri Sekhar DanaBankuraBilleswar SinhaBarjoraSatyanarayan MukhopadhyayChhatnaLakshmi Kanta MajumdarKatulpurAmarnath ShakhaOndaKshetramohan HansdaRaipurKshudiram TuduRanibandhChandana BauriSaltoraDibakar GharamiSonamukhiSouvik PatraTaldangraJagannath ChattopadhyaySuriAssamRanjeet Kumar DassBhawanipur-SorbhogMunindra DasBehaliPallab Lochan DasBiswanathUtpal BorahGohpurBhupen RoyAbhayapuriAmiya Kanti DasDholaiKamalakhya Dey PurkayasthaKatigorahKaushik RaiLakhipurPuducherryM. Arul MuruganKaraikal SouthTksm MeenatchisundaramNeravy–T.R. Pattinam
</p>
</p> |
