 Summary of this article
- Dulat says no system is foolproof, but the real failure was not anticipating the attack despite warning signs.
- Tourism and protests may have changed after Article 370, but heavy security presence and recurring militancy show Kashmir is far from settled.
- He says delayed statehood, lack of engagement, and growing alienation risk creating a deeper crisis beneath the surface.
A year after the Pahalgam attack, unanswered questions remain over the security lapse, the missing attackers, and what the episode revealed about Kashmir’s deeper fault lines.
In a wide-ranging conversation with Outlook, former R&AW chief A.S. Dulat discusses issues related to the incident, militant evolution, the political void in Jammu & Kashmir, and the changed social atmosphere. Edited excerpts:
Q
It has been a year since Pahalgam. What are the questions that remain without answers from then?
A
Yes. See, you must remember one thing, that people ask, how did Pahalgam happen, why did Pahalgam happen? These things happen, it was a terrible incident. The worst that we've seen in a very long time. But these incidents or any such incident only happens when there is a lapse, a security lapse.
And please remember, there is no such thing as foolproof security, you know. Like, there is no foolproof intelligence also. Nobody does.
And people say that they don't negotiate with terrorists and things like that. Everybody does. Mossad does, the Israelis do, the Americans do, everybody does.
You didn’t see it coming. That is the real lapse, you know. If somebody were to ask me, you know, how did Pahalgam happen? After the event, even I can tell you how it happened.
If you recall, before Pahalgamhappened, there were these boys coming in through Jammu, which never happened in the past. And if you remember, there were attacks in Kathua. So how, then you start climbing up - Kathua, Doda, Kishtwar, Anantnag, when you go beyond Anantnag, you can go up into the heights. You go up into the heights and you get lost.
If you look at militancy in Kashmir, if we go back to 88, 89, it started in the north. These guys were coming in through Kupwara, Handwara, and Baramulla.
Now, then, if you recall, 2016, I think it was, when that boy Burhan Wani was killed, was when the whole thing had shifted to the south. Because he was a boy from Tral, from the south. These shifts happen.
And they are dictated not by us, but by the guys doing the job, the militants. Of course, Pakistan is involved in this. There are no two ways on that. But there will always be some local support.
Now, fortunately, Srinagar hasn't had a bad incident in a long time. If things happen there, it means they have sleeper cells. That is the most frightening thing.
Also, there is a connect between tourism and militancy. Always has been. And the Pakistanis understand that.
Now, with summer coming, hopefully, there will be no attack. Because Pakistanis know that this is the season in which the Kashmiri makes money, tourism. So, why disturb his tourism, tourist season?
The Pakistanis are more involved with the Iran war. So, I don't think there is anything big likely to happen now. But you can never say.
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