A proposed move by the United States to a uniform 15 per cent tariff could benefit several Asia-Pacific economies that were earlier subject to steeper country-specific levies, Moody’s Analytics said on Tuesday, while warning that uncertainty around US trade policy remains elevated.
In a statement, the firm said economies such as China and parts of Southeast Asia may see relative relief if Washington implements a flat tariff of 15 per cent. However, it noted that the change would have a limited effect on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan (China), where the base tariff rate is already 15 per cent.
“There is a lot of uncertainty, but we do know a few things. A uniform 15 per cent tariff would benefit some Asia-Pacific economies that have faced much steeper country-specific levies,” Moody’s Analytics said.
The comments come after a recent US Supreme Court ruling against the Trump administration’s country-specific tariffs. Following the judgment, US President Donald Trump imposed a temporary 10 per cent tariff on all countries for 150 days and later indicated plans to raise the rate to 15 per cent. Moody’s Analytics noted that no formal order or proclamation has yet been issued regarding the proposed increase.
The firm said the ruling has also cast doubt over recently negotiated trade arrangements with India and Indonesia. Key details — including the timeline for India to reduce purchases of Russian oil and the volume of tariff-free textile exports from Indonesia — remain unresolved. It added that India has delayed plans to send a delegation to Washington.
Moody’s Analytics said the court decision may limit Washington’s ability to use country-specific tariffs, potentially reducing US leverage in trade negotiations. It flagged implications for upcoming diplomatic engagements, including a scheduled meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Despite the legal setback, the firm said it expects the US administration to explore alternative legal pathways to adjust tariff levels. “We expect Trump to find other legal routes to raise tariffs, and we wouldn’t be surprised if US tariffs end up close to where they sat before Friday,” it said.
The firm added that while some governments may slow the ratification of trade agreements with the United States, an outright withdrawal appears unlikely due to concerns over possible punitive measures.
Moody’s Analytics cautioned that even if tariff rates eventually stabilise below earlier levels, trade uncertainty and logistical disruptions are likely to persist. It said companies may seek compensation for tariffs already paid, describing the process as potentially contentious and time-consuming.
The statement also highlighted the possibility of renewed front-loading of shipments, as importers may accelerate deliveries if they interpret the ruling as temporary relief. Moody’s Analytics said businesses and policymakers should remain prepared for continued volatility in US trade policy. |
