Gold may continue to shine well into next year, with Axis Securities forecasting that prices could climb as high as Rs 1.45–1.50 lakh per 10 grams by Diwali 2026. In its Dhanteras 2025 Gold Report, the brokerage advised traders and long-term investors to accumulate on dips in the Rs 1.05–1.15 lakh range, pointing to several global and domestic factors that are helping gold continue its upward trend.
Axis Securities said the rally remains underpinned by easing US Treasury yields, sustained central bank buying, and geopolitical tensions that continue to strengthen gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. “Traders may consider accumulating on declines, as the overall trend remains positive,” the report noted, projecting up to 30 per cent further upside from current levels.
Domestic Prices Near Record Highs
Domestic gold prices have already breached the Rs 1 lakh per 10-gram mark, with MCX Gold rallying on expectations of more US Federal Reserve rate cuts and robust demand from central banks. Gold’s sharp outperformance against the Nifty 50 over the past year reflects a clear investor pivot towards safety and stability amid global uncertainty.
Between October 2024 and October 2025, gold prices have delivered an impressive 60 per cent return. On the international market, Comex gold surged to a record USD 4,180 per ounce, breaking past key resistance at USD 3,446. The brokerage expects the uptrend to continue as long as prices hold above USD 3,800 per ounce, with the next resistance seen around USD 4,700–4,800.
Global Factors Fueling the Rally
Axis Securities identified several factors likely to keep gold prices elevated into 2026, including prospects of rate cuts in the US that make non-yielding assets more attractive, continued diversification by central banks away from the US dollar, and a weakening greenback driven by high US debt and de-dollarisation trends. The report also cited persistent geopolitical tensions and record inflows into the global gold ETFs (Exchange-Traded Fund), signalling strong retail appetite for gold as an inflation hedge and store of value.
Central bank purchases are expected to exceed 1,000 tonnes in 2025, after 1,180 tonnes last year. Meanwhile, global ETF inflows have reached historic highs, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the yellow metal. “Gold’s rally has been supported by strong central bank demand, ETF inflows, and growing concerns over monetary debasement,” the report said. “If these trends continue, gold could see further upside into 2026.”
The brokerage suggested that investors seeking exposure without the logistical challenges of physical gold can consider Gold ETFs or Sovereign Gold Bonds, which provide liquidity and eliminate purity risks. “Indian households already hold over USD 3 trillion worth of private gold reserves — the world’s largest,” Axis Securities observed. “That cultural trust in gold as a store of value continues to pay off handsomely this year.”
While the outlook remains strongly bullish, the report warned that a sustained pullback below USD 3,446 per ounce could trigger a correction toward USD 3,100, marking a critical support zone for the ongoing trend. For now, however, with easing monetary policy expectations, strong institutional demand, and persistent global uncertainties, gold’s glitter shows no signs of fading this festive season. |
