Today, the entire world’s eyes are on India. The most powerful man keeping global capitals on edge is landing shortly.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi sits down with Vladimir Putin tonight for a private dinner, the meeting will unfold under a very different kind of American shadow. Putin’s first visit to New Delhi since 2021 comes at a fraught geopolitical moment, with sanctions, oil purchase pressures, an ongoing war, and Western scrutiny bearing heavily on India’s ties with Moscow.
The White House has made it repeatedly clear that India’s continued purchases of Russian crude and BRICS’ push for non-dollar settlement systems are now “strategic irritants.” Despite Trump’s softened rhetoric, the US expects India to distance itself from Russia in terms of oil diplomacy if it wants tariffs diluted. On the other hand, the Kremlin has also ascertained that US pressure will determine the future of India and Russia relationship.
ALSO READPutin’s 30-hour India Itinerary: Full schedule of summits, private dinners and more
Against this backdrop, Putin’s December 4–5 visit to New Delhi becomes more than a routine bilateral summit. Instead, it is a live test of India’s delicate balancing act between two major partners.
The real question is: how far can India secure its oil supplies, satisfy its trade expectations, and deepen its Russia partnership without triggering another round of American retaliation?
Geostrategist Dr Brahma Chellaney describes Putin’s visit as “not just another diplomatic stopover” but “a powerful geopolitical statement” at a time when the world is dividing into rival blocs. According to him, by hosting Putin, “India is making clear that it rejects the Western-imposed binary of “with us or against us” and will chart its own path.”
The Trump shadow: Tariffs, sanctions and oil pressure
Donald Trump wants Russia to end the war against Ukraine. Since Putin has refused to capitulate, New Delhi’s links with Moscow have come under growing scrutiny. Trump forced India to lessen its Russian oil purchase with a threat to sabotage the ongoing trade deal and levied 50% tariffs. Those were followed in October by the US’s secondary sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil and Rosneft companies, which account for over half of the country’s crude exports.
After India’s Russia imports reached the highest levels in November purchases are expected to plunge to a three-month low with Indian companies already responding to the sanctions. Adani has implemented a ban on the entry of sanctioned oil vessels at the 14 ports that it operates across the country. Reliance, which owns the world’s largest refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat, has also reduced its purchase of Russian crude.
ALSO READWhat is the S-400, Su-57 deal? Key agenda at India-Russia summit ahead of Putin-Modi talks
Washington has effectively designated Russian oil a “sanctioned molecule.” The Trump administration’s blunt claim is that India must stop funding the Kremlin’s war machine and instead purchase American LNG and crude to balance trade.
For Prime Minister Modi, the choice is existential. Bowing to Trump’s ultimatum risks energy inflation, considering American oil is pricier, and losing Russia as a strategic partner. Defying it risks losing access to India’s largest export market – the US.
That’s why for India the summit is not just about defence or diplomacy; it is about safeguarding its energy interests and building a strong east policy.
The Trade Expectations
With President Donald Trump having doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50% as punishment for New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases, Reuters suggests Indian officials are wary that any new energy or defence announcement could invite immediate retaliation.
Despite this anxiety, both sides have prepared a substantive, wide-ranging agenda, with extensive pre-summit talks covering defence, shipping, agriculture, connectivity and payments.
The Oil Diplomacy to take centrestage
1- Energy is expected to dominate the conversation. But given the US scrutiny no dramatic crude announcements may be expected.
Moscow is expected to seek India’s help in securing technical equipment for its oil assets, as Western sanctions have cut off access to key suppliers. Its delegation includes chiefs of sanctioned oil firms Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, signalling that oil diplomacy will be front and centre.
Reuters says, New Delhi will instead push for the restoration of ONGC Videsh’s 20% stake in the Sakhalin-1 project, which was diluted after Russian restructuring. Government will also seek clarity on long-term supply arrangements, especially as most Indian refiners have sharply reduced Russian purchases under US pressure.
Dollar Hegemony under threat
2- With an aim to dilute the dollar dominance Russia may propose rupee-denominated trade. Sberbank’s CEO Ivan Nosov, who is a part of the Putin delegation, has confirmed interest in investing in Indian infrastructure using parked rupee balances, which have ballooned as a result of the trade imbalance.
Sberbank has launched a rupee-denominated letter of credit with deferred payment, allowing Russian importers to buy from India with full financing at lower costs than rouble loans.
Trump’s senior advisors have framed this as a threat to “America’s financial primacy,” warning that countries experimenting with non-dollar trade could face restrictions in dollar clearing systems.
The Defence Deals
3- Another watchpoint during Putin’s visit will be the announcement of new defence deals. Over 50% of India’s in-service military platforms remain of Russian origin. India is expected to use Putin’s visit to pursue a purchase of Russia’s 5th generation Su-57 fighter aircraft, along with advanced missile defence systems.
Following the system’s reported success in the recent Operation Sindoor, India is doubling down. The agenda will be to expedite the final two squadrons defying US apprehension.
In a world where sanctions, geopolitics and supply-chain fragility are becoming the norm, India is betting on autonomy and balancing as it tries to secure its national interest. If this meet results in concrete alternative payment paths, reliable energy supply assurances, and a broader trade-exports push it could mark a new chapter in managing the post-2022 global order. |
