The upcoming Bihar assembly election is evolving into an aggressive contest, and nowhere is the political temperature increasing as much as in Seemanchal. The easternmost belt of Bihar, comprising four districts and 24 assembly constituencies, will witness a multi-cornered electoral clash that could redefine its political equations. The intensity of competition has mobilised each prospective party to go the extra mile and carve out space in an already crowded field.
Both the Mahagathbandhan and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance have their share of different caste-based parties participating in the alliances, and with the advent of the newly formed Jan Suraj led by Prashant Kishor, it has become difficult even for seasoned political observers to predict outcomes. Yet, in Seemanchal, the picture is clearer than the rest of Bihar, and simultaneously more complex for the Mahagathbandhan. Being a Muslim-majority region, Seemanchal has historically leaned away from the NDA, but this time, new forces may be altering old loyalties.
The region is witnessing a vigorous outreach from three fronts: the Congress-RJD alliance, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM. Together, they have made political equations on the ground more intricate than ever. While AIMIM is considered strong on two assembly seats, analysts believe it could play a disruptive role in several others, potentially splitting votes that traditionally went to the Mahagathbandhan.
Prashant Kishor, meanwhile, is resonating well among Muslims through his Jan Suraaj campaign. Kishor has been addressing Muslims across districts, telling them that their political representation has been monopolised by Yadav leaders. His message, that if Muslims vote for the RJD, it is going to empower Yadav leaders, is an attempt to shift loyalties in a region where identity politics runs deep.
Seemanchal comprises four Muslim-dominated districts: Kishanganj, Araria, Purnea, and Katihar, where a significant portion of the electorate is Muslim. The community, however, is now seen as more open to experimenting with political options, largely because it no longer fears an imminent BJP takeover in the region due to it being a Muslim majority region. This sense of political comfort has created space for multiple parties, sometimes allowing the BJP to slip through in unexpected contests.
"The Muslims cannot be strategic voters in this region. Where they are in minority, they vote en masse against the BJP, for the candidate they think can defeat the saffron camp. In majority regions they vote freely," a political analyst based in Bihar says.
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Jan Suraaj’s Seemanchal in-charge, Dr R.K. Jha, is confident of making a mark. “The way it was a few months back, it’s different now,” he says. “Things have changed to a large extent, and we can see our consequential performance in the upcoming elections. Earlier, we didn’t have cadre, but now we do. Moreover, people are not happy with either of the main camps, and that is going to help us perform better.”
In the 2020 assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan could win only 12 of the 24 Assembly seats in Seemanchal. Despite retaining a broad Muslim-Yadav base, the alliance lost ground due to AIMIM’s rise, which acted as a spoiler in minority-dominated pockets and contributed to its defeat in over ten seats. The 2025 elections now pose a larger question: can the Mahagathbandhan hold its traditional turf against simultaneous challenges from both AIMIM and Jan Suraaj?
As Seemanchal heads into another decisive electoral battle, its politics is no longer a straight contest between familiar rivals. The rise of new players has ensured that every vote, and every village, will count in this three-cornered fight. |
