Adani has publicised its goal of achieving a 15 GW renewable energy park at Khavda in Gujarat. Reliance India is building a fully integrated ‘sand-to‐module’ manufacturing ecosystem at its Jamnagar facility in Gujarat. With the government’s generous PLI (Production Linked Incentive) schemes underway, the country is signalling a major push into solar manufacturing. Yet beneath the announcements lies a persistent dependency. Though India is installing record amounts of modules, around 70 per cent of upstream inputs, wafers, polysilicon, and ingots, remain imported, mainly from China.
“India doesn’t manufacture at the base level. We import most of the key components from China and assemble them here,” said Aditya Trivedi, Head of 5B India. “Even though players like Adani have achieved milestones such as 15 gigawatts of renewable-energy capacity, this is largely assembly-based.” His observation reflects the sector’s underlying structure, where India’s capacity growth is driven more by integration and assembly than by deep manufacturing.
China continues to dominate the global solar photovoltaic (PV) supply chain, producing roughly 91 per cent of the world’s polysilicon and over 97 per cent of wafers. It controls more than 80 per cent of cell and module manufacturing, as well as the production of solar machinery, precision tools, and R&D capabilities.“China’s dominance is the result of decades of effort by companies and the laser focus of its government. The state support, consistent policy, and integrated ecosystem have created a mature supply chain,” Trivedi explained.
Further shedding light on China’s dominance, Someshwar Dutt Sharma, CIO at Jakson Green, underscored the magnitude of this gap, noting that “Global leaders operate at 50–60 GW of integrated capacity, while India’s largest players are still targeting around 15 GW. He added that India lacks solar-grade polysilicon reserves, further widening the upstream disadvantage.”
In contrast, India’s position remains limited to the downstream end of the chain. Most domestic facilities rely on imported wafers and cells and merely perform module assembly, keeping local value addition low. The upstream processes that convert quartz into polysilicon, ingots, and wafers require enormous capital investment, ultra-cheap and stable electricity, and highly specialised machinery, areas where China has built dominant and unmatched scale and expertise.
A Long Road Ahead
However, industry leaders note that India is rapidly compressing decades of industrial development into just a few years. According to Jai, CEO, Galo Solar, “India’s journey is one of acceleration, condensing what took China decades into a few intense years. With PLI 2.0 driving backward integration, domestic investment in wafers and polysilicon is already underway.”
This dependence still has cost implications. Without upstream integration, Indian module makers face higher bills of materials (BOMs), weaker margins, and reduced pricing power. When Chinese polysilicon prices rose again in 2024–25 after the imposition of supply-side controls, Indian manufacturers experienced an immediate cost escalation. Even as domestic capacity expands, the ecosystem remains exposed to imported inputs and equipment, leaving India’s solar sector susceptible to global price swings.
Government incentives such as the PLI scheme are intended to change this picture, but the results so far have been mixed. While the PLI framework was originally built on four pillars, polysilicon production, wafering, cell printing, and module assembly, India currently has meaningful depth only in the last two, limiting the nation’s ability to climb the full value chain. “The PLI scheme supports setting up assembly lines, not genuine manufacturing,” Trivedi noted. He added that India’s policy design often prioritises short-term results over long-term industrial depth: “We often design policies that look good on paper but are not thought through in terms of long-term execution.”
At the same time, Jai of Galo Solar maintains that the second phase of PLI is starting to build genuine technological depth. It is fostering R&D partnerships, domestic supplier ecosystems, and engineering talent, laying the groundwork for self-reliant manufacturing capability that extends beyond modules.
Beyond economics, the dependency also creates strategic exposure. “If China decides to restrict exports of equipment or materials, India’s solar manufacturing could stall completely,” Trivedi cautioned. He added that energy planning should transcend tactical alliances: “A country’s long-term industrial or energy strategy should never be shaped by short-term geopolitical alignments.”
While short-term global interdependence remains inevitable, India is already diversifying its supply base to mitigate future shocks. Jai of Galo Solar added, “Global interdependence is natural in a fast-growing industry, but India is proactively localising critical inputs and creating a self-sufficient solar ecosystem to withstand global disruptions.”
What’s Next?
Looking ahead, Trivedi believes India’s path shouldn’t be to replicate China’s full-stack model but to build resilience through diversification. “Instead of trying to mirror China’s full-stack model, we should focus on technologies that make us more energy self-sufficient,” he said. Experts also point to India’s focus on next-generation technologies such as TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT), and perovskite solar cells, which could help achieve both efficiency and cost parity with global leaders. Adding to a futuristic path, Dutt notes, “While continuing solar expansion, India must focus on newer technologies like green hydrogen, an area where we are not reliant on the dominant manufacturing region.”
The next leap, many in the sector believe, will be defined by circular manufacturing, digital integration, and smarter energy systems, areas where India can lead rather than follow. In short, India’s renewable expansion is significant but incomplete. The 15-gigawatt milestone represents progress in scale, not yet in sovereignty. Competing with China will require mastering every step from raw silicon to finished panel, backed by consistent policy, indigenous innovation, and resilient supply chains. Only then will India’s solar growth reflect not just ambition, but true transformation.
Legal and Policy Lens: India’s Solar Push Faces WTO and Domestic Hurdles
India’s ambition to localise solar manufacturing is not just an industrial challenge; it is also a legal balancing act. Kartikeya G.S., Partner at JSA Advocates & Solicitors, noted that while India’s production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme and other state-level measures are designed to foster self-reliance, they now face scrutiny at the World Trade Organization (WTO). “China has challenged India’s policies on the grounds that they allegedly favour domestic over imported goods, but India is likely to argue that the norms are meant to incentivise local industry rather than discourage foreign suppliers,” he explained. With the WTO’s appellate system effectively paralysed, the dispute may take years to resolve through diplomatic rather than judicial channels.
Domestically, procedural hurdles continue to slow expansion. Land acquisition remains a persistent obstacle, with fragmented ownership, contested titles, and uneven compensation stalling projects. “Changes in government, fiscal constraints, or regulatory lassitude have stranded industries that were promised incentives,” Kartikeya added, emphasising that predictability and policy continuity are critical to investor confidence.
Kartikeya believes India’s next policy phase must deliver legal clarity on land use, time-bound disbursal of subsidies, and contractual frameworks that safeguard developers from global supply-chain shocks, creating the stability essential for long-term investment in solar manufacturing.
Even as we are trying to accelerate the solar industry, it is at a stage where it faces challenges from several directions. Even if we start developing indigenous technology today, the renewable sector will need a gestation period of 5 to 10 years to succeed on the path of self-reliance. |
