Over the past two decades, the global metals industry has transformed from an era of expansion to one of caution. Rising costs, environmental pressures, and tightening financing have forced producers in major economies to close plants, reduce capacity, and delay new investments. From copper to zinc and steel to aluminium, global mining giants are struggling with diminishing ore grades, surging power prices, and stricter emission norms. The result has been a slowdown in expansion across Europe, China, Japan, and Latin America.
For example, Nyrstar has announced a 25 per cent cut in zinc output at its Hobart smelter, Teck Resources faces lower grades at Red Dog, and Glencore has trimmed copper guidance to under 900,000 tonnes. In steel, European furnaces lie idle, Japan’s JFE plans to slash production by 20 per cent, and global aluminium inventories have plunged to record lows. The message is clear, the world is retrenching in metal capacity.
A Contrarian Bet By India
Amid this global retrenchment, India stands out for doing the exact opposite. While other countries are shutting down furnaces, Indian metal producers are adding capacity, modernising smelters, and integrating raw material supply chains. This contrarian approach is driven by the belief that India’s future growth trajectory will sustain decades of strong demand for metals, a view reinforced by its massive infrastructure spending, industrial expansion, and green transition targets.
Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Hindalco, NALCO, Tata Steel, and JSW Steel are spearheading a new wave of investment across zinc, aluminium, and steel. This is not just corporate ambition but a coordinated national strategy. With policies such as the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for speciality steel and the National Critical Minerals Mission, India is seizing a historic opportunity to expand while global supply tightens.
Hindustan Zinc (HZL), the world’s largest integrated zinc producer and India’s only primary zinc and silver producer, is focusing on significant expansion. In FY25, it recorded mined-metal production of over 1 million tonnes with an EBITDA margin of 51 per cent, among the best globally.
Backed by this strong performance, HZL aims to double its refined-metal capacity to 2 million tonne by 2030. In the first phase, it has approved an investment of Rs 12,000 crore this year to set up an integrated 250 KTPA smelter, along with a Rs 3,800 crore tailings reprocessing facility that will recover zinc and silver from mining waste, a sustainability move few global peers can match.
The company has also announced plans to increase silver production, a strategic step at a time, when silver prices have hit multi-year highs and the demand and importance of the metal is expected to grow further. This is also evident from the US government’s recent move to include the metal in the critical minerals List.
HZL’s foray into potash, tungsten, and rare-earth minerals further aligns with India’s critical mineral self-reliance goals. As developed economies shift focus to decarbonisation and digitalisation, India’s mining expansion ensures a steady domestic supply of essential inputs for renewables, batteries, and advanced manufacturing.
Aluminium: From Power-hungry To Self-reliant
If the 2000s were China’s aluminium decade, the 2030s may well belong to India. With China’s smelting capped at 45 million tonnes, power costs surging in the West, and inventories near 0.7 million tonnes globally, the aluminium market is tightening fast. India’s aluminium leaders, Vedanta and Hindalco, are exploiting this window.
Vedanta Aluminium is expanding capacity beyond 3 million tonnes annually, integrating captive power and refineries to reduce dependence on volatile energy markets. Its substantial investment also focuses on higher-value products like billets, wire rods, and rolled alloys for automotive, electrical, and construction sectors. Hindalco, on the other hand, is deepening its downstream business, targeting EV and packaging-grade aluminium products. NALCO is also investing in bauxite mining and alumina refining ensures long-term resource security.
Collectively, India’s aluminium output has crossed 4 million tonnes per year, a scale unmatched outside China, and is set to grow further, positioning India as the world’s most reliable non-Chinese aluminium source in the coming decade.
Steel: The Backbone Of Industrialisation
India’s steel sector is perhaps the clearest reflection of its industrial ambition. While Japan and Europe are decommissioning blast furnaces, Indian firms are building new ones. Tata Steel and JSW Steel, and AM/NS India are together adding a lot of additional capacity by 2030. JSW and Japan’s JFE are investing nearly USD 669 million to expand electrical steel capacity for renewable energy and EVs, an area Europe is scaling back due to high power prices.
Public sector giants like SAIL and NMDC are expanding too, focusing on value-added steel for construction, defense, and green energy. Importantly, these expansions are incorporating modern technologies, hydrogen-based furnaces, carbon capture pilots, and automation, to meet future emission standards without sacrificing growth.
Behind these corporate moves lies a clear policy alignment. India’s National Infrastructure Pipeline, with projected investments of over USD 1.5 trillion, along with housing, railways, and renewable energy projects, ensures sustained demand for base metals. The government’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” mission reinforces local production across critical inputs, while the PLI scheme directly incentivises high-value steel manufacturing.
Moreover, India’s per capita consumption of steel (around 100 kg), aluminium (3.5 kg), and zinc (0.6 kg) remains a fraction of global averages, leaving enormous headroom for growth. Rising electrification, green energy adoption, and the EV revolution are set to multiply metal intensity in India’s GDP. In contrast, developed economies are reaching saturation, where metal demand is flattening or declining.
The Energy And Sustainability Equation
India’s metals push is also increasingly green. Companies are investing in renewable power integration, waste reprocessing, and water recycling. HZL’s tailings recovery project and JSW’s green steel pilots represent an industry conscious of sustainability while pursuing scale. This dual focus on capacity and environmental responsibility differentiates India from past models of industrialisation that ignored ecological costs.
Strategically, India’s timing is impeccable. Global supply constraints coincide with a long-term structural rise in demand for critical minerals, copper, aluminium, nickel, and rare earths, all essential for energy transition technologies like EVs, batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines. By expanding now, India is positioning itself as the future metals hub of the global economy, capable of both meeting domestic requirements and exporting to deficit markets.
Furthermore, global investors increasingly view India as the next major destination for resource investments. With stable policy, a young workforce, and growing domestic demand, Indian mining offers resilience that Western peers lack.
As global producers retreat, India is mining into the future, both literally and strategically. Its expansion is not just about producing more metal but about anchoring industrialisation, jobs, and technological progress for decades. Where the world sees risk, India sees opportunity.
By combining government support, private capital, and a long-term vision, India is transforming a cyclical slowdown into a generational advantage. If global metals enter a new super cycle driven by clean energy and reindustrialisation, the countries that invested during the downturn, like India, will lead the next wave.
India is not following the metals cycle; it is redefining it, proving that in every slowdown lies the seed of a new beginning.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publication. |
