How Super El Niño could reshape India’s Monsoon — and its future | K ...
A strong “Super El Niño” is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean, and it is already raising concerns for India’s 2026 southwest monsoon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a long-range forecast warning that rainfall this year could fall below normal.For a country where a seasonal monsoon delivers nearly 70 per cent of its annual rainfall, feeds half its farmland, and underpins the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people, the stakes could not be higher.
What this ‘Super El Niño’ means
El Niño is a climate pattern that happens when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. It’s often a part of a bigger picture called ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). When it becomes very strong, it is often called a “Super El Niño,” and it can disrupt weather systems worldwide.
One major impact is on global wind patterns, including the Walker Circulation, which plays an important role in shaping India’s monsoon.
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According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued on May 14, 2026, El Niño has a high chance of forming soon, about 82% during May to July 2026. It is also expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, with a 96% probability.
Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have already peaked, and the Niño-3.4 index has crossed the +0.5°C mark, which is a key threshold for El Niño conditions. The International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University has warned about a 98% chance of El Niño during May to July 2026, and it is likely to continue through the year.
Super El Nino Impact on monsoon– What does IMD’s forecast say?
The southwest monsoon usually begins in Kerala around June 1 and continues until September. During this period, India normally receives about 870 mm of rainfall. But the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that the 2026 monsoon could be much weaker because of El Niño.
The IMD estimates that rainfall this year may fall to around 800 mm, which is far below normal. The agency also said there is a 35 per cent chance that India could face a “deficient” monsoon season. Normally, the probability of such poor rainfall is only around 16 per cent.
Climate scientist and former IMD Director General KJ Ramesh said, “The worst-case scenario could be a slightly negative rainfall during the monsoon.” At the same time, he added that higher moisture levels in the atmosphere since 2000 might help reduce rainfall shortages in some regions.
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Northwest and central India are usually hit the hardest during El Niño years. Historical records show why experts are nervous. According to IMD data, India has received below-average rainfall during the last six El Niño years in a row.
In 2009, even a weak El Niño caused India’s monsoon rainfall to drop to only 78.2 per cent of the normal average. At that time, it was the weakest monsoon in 37 years.
Heatwaves could become much worse
El Niño also increases the risk of severe heatwaves across India. India already saw 60 per cent below-normal rainfall during January and February 2026, which scientists say is an early warning sign.
According to the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, India experienced nearly 20 heatwave days on average in 2024, which was the warmest year recorded globally at that time.
Dr Vishwas Chitale from the Council on Energy, Environment & Water explained the risk. “A developing El Niño, particularly if it intensifies into a strong or ‘super’ El Niño event, can significantly amplify summer heatwaves in India,” he said.
He added, “This often translates into longer, more intense, and more frequent heatwave episodes, especially across northwest, central, and peninsular India.”
Farming could face a major crisis
India’s agriculture sector depends heavily on the monsoon. Even today, more than half of India’s farmland relies directly on rainfall instead of irrigation systems. The kharif crop season, which runs from June to October, includes rice, pulses, soybean, cotton, sugarcane, and oilseeds. These crops are extremely important for both farmers and the food supply.
Dr SN Mishra from TERI School of Advanced Studies warned that a weak monsoon could badly hurt crop production. “More than 50 per cent of India’s agricultural land is still rainfed, making the agriculture sector highly vulnerable to a Super El Niño-induced weak monsoon,” he said.
Water supply and electricity are also at risk
When rainfall drops, stored water helps cities, villages, and farms survive through the dry months. But if the monsoon remains poor this year, reservoir levels may not recover properly.
As a result, Hydroelectric power generation could also suffer. At the same time, electricity demand usually rises during heatwaves because more people use fans and air conditioners. Experts say northwest and central India face the greatest danger of drought and water shortages.
Changes in snowfall patterns in the Himalayas could also affect rivers like the Ganga, Brahmaputra, and Indus, which support millions of people across South Asia.
This could become a global concern
Countries like Australia and Indonesia often face drought during strong El Niño years. Since they are major food exporters, global food prices could rise if crops fail there too. Global agencies like the FAO, WHO, and WMO are now closely monitoring the situation to prepare for possible impacts on food supply, health, and agriculture.
That El Niño is believed to have caused one of the deadliest famines in history.
A study published in the Journal of Climate estimated that between 12.2 million and 29.3 million people may have died in India during that period due to famine-related conditions. Worldwide deaths crossed 50 million.
Of course, the world today is very different. Countries now have better warning systems, stronger transport networks, food storage systems, and disaster response plans.
Still, scientists say the danger cannot be ignored because Earth is already much hotter than it was in the 1800s. The planet has warmed by around 1.4°C since pre-industrial times.
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