Skymet forecasts ‘below normal’ monsoon, raises concern over kharif ...
Private weather agency Skymet on Tuesday forecast a ‘below-normal’ southwest monsoon season (June-September) in 2026, with rainfall likely at around 94% of the benchmark long-period average (LPA). It stated that strengthening El Niño could impact rainfall, especially in the latter half of the season (August-September), which may impact the kharif crops output as well as rural consumption.Overall agricultural growth in the current fiscal year could also be impacted if adequate rains aren’t received in key crop-growing areas in the monsoon period when the country typically gets 65-70% of annual rainfall. The prospects of a below-normal monsoon this year follows back-to-back “above normal” monsoon years of 2024 and 2025.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to unveil its first forecast for the monsoon 2026 next week.
El Nino prediction
“El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest Monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker Monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular,” Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, said in a statement.
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In addition to El Nino, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)has the capacity to drive monsoon circulation. “A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Niño”, the agency stated.
Skymet has stated that the core monsoon rainfed zone of central and western parts to witness inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana,and Rajasthan are likely to observe less than normal rains, and more so, during August-September. East and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country, it stated.
“This is likely to have a negative impact for the rural consumption as farm output could get impacted,” Abheesh Roy, executive director, Nuvama Institutional Equities, said. In terms of monthly performance, rainfall is projected at June (101%), July (95%), August (92%) and September (89%) of LPA, according to Skymet.
Importance of adequate monsoons
Adequate monsoon rains also helps rabi crops – wheat, pulses and oilseeds sowing because of high soil moisture availability. The agency stated that there is a 40% chance of below normal between 90 to 95% of LPA and 30% chance of drought or seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of the benchmark.
I 2024 and 2025, rains were 108% of the benchmark or above normal level, according to the IMD making it the best monsoon in four years. In 2023, monsoon season performance was , however,‘below normal’ at 94% of LPA.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, recently stated that the El Nino conditions are likely to develop by the end of July or the second half of the monsoon months. Typically, the southwest monsoon, after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region during the mid-September and during the fourth months, the country receives over 75% of its annual rainfall.
The volume of monsoon rainfall during four months crucial to the country’s kharif crops – rice, pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals, is projected to be 81.7 centimetres against the normal benchmark of 87 centimetres, the agency stated. The LPA is the average rainfall received during 1971-2020. The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’.
Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’.
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